Climatology and Projections

Record run of Increasing Global Temperature –

Global Warming Spiral – Graphic or spiralling temperatures

“Climate Council” – economic and scientific reports on climate change impacts in agriculture, cities, regions, industries and economic direction.

“IPCC” United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change – There have been 5 major reports since 1990. The latest is AR5 in 4 volumes. Each report is a synthesis compiled from several thousand scientists. This process takes several years of revue by senior scientists and the work is unpaid. Projections are necessarily very conservative since anything unproven or unmeasured is not included eg methane from melting permafrost, mitigation by soil methanotrophs. The reports are highly detailed and mostly useful for accepted methodologies in data processing, modelling and carbon accounting. Methodologies also evolve with each report as more information comes in.

“State of the Climate” – CSIRO – produced every two years: a good assessment of climate change influences and uses new methodologies to tease out patterns that really affect industry and agriculture.

OEH Regional Projections – As you can see from the Carbon Accounting section a great deal can be hidden by using a later start date. These regional projections use  a base comparison of 1990 to 2009, a period which had already experienced a great deal of change. The projections are based on conservative IPCC estimates. The impact assessments are based on averages which under estimate the multiplier effect of extremes and especially the frequency of extremes which effects capacity to rebuild.

Analysis of North Coast Projections – TweedCAN has prepared a detailed critique of regional modelling forecasts and a more realistic appraisal of impacts to 2030.  Analysis – Detailed scientific responses to sensationalist news stories and claims by climate change denialists – Commentary from a scientific standpoint

“Requiem for a Species” Clive Hamilton 2010 – Overview written in the cheeky style

“Storms of my Grandchildren” James Hansen 2009 – An impassioned plea that does not pull punches or hide prospective impacts behind conservative estimates.

“Atmosphere of Hope” by Tim Flannery 2015 – Useful overview of where we need to go and canvases some options including geoengineering.

“The Future” – Al Gore 2013 – Global overview of converging challenges

Climate data – Official records and impact assessments.

Local Data and Projections – , Analysis

Sea Levels

Ultimate levels of sea level rise are much easier to project than the time at which these levels will be reached. Antarctica is losing ice mass overall but gaining sea ice. Figures for snow fall in Antarctica are patchy at best. Sea level rise also varies around the world. For example, sea levels around Florida are rising 10 times faster than the global average. The shallow seas in the gulf of Carpentaria are rising faster than on the east coast of Australia.

Local projections from Climate Central

Tweed Heads





Miami in Denial –

Comments are closed